A survey with over 5,000 interviews revealed that Donald Trump has taken the lead in five out of six crucial swing states and is tied in the sixth state, Michigan. Only in Nevada does Joe Biden maintain a narrow three-point lead.
Here’s the breakdown of Trump’s leads in these states:
1. Georgia: Trump 48% (+5); Biden 43%
2. Arizona: Trump 47% (+4); Biden 43%
3. Wisconsin: Trump 46% (+2); Biden 44%
4. Pennsylvania: Trump 46% (+1); Biden 45%
5. North Carolina: Trump 47% (+4); Biden 43%
6. Michigan: Trump 44% (=); Biden 44%
7. Nevada: Biden 46% (+3); Trump 43%
Trump’s strong performance in these key states can be attributed to several factors. First, global instability, marked by two simultaneous wars, has made Trump appear as the peace candidate compared to the current situation. Additionally, there’s a growing perception that Biden’s policies have been too lenient toward Iran, especially as Tehran’s influence is evident in the recent Hamas attacks on Israel.
Furthermore, rising mortgage interest rates, reaching as high as eight percent, have triggered inflation across the board, impacting those with adjustable-rate mortgages. Biden’s apparent decline in mental acuity has also become a daily concern during his presidency.
Trump has leveraged the UAW strike to emphasize the issue of “car choice” in opposition to electric vehicle mandates. He has also stayed clear of the speaker fight in the U.S. House without suffering political consequences. Trump’s ongoing court cases have presented evidence of what he portrays as prosecutorial persecution, which has alienated some voters.
Notably, Trump has made significant gains among Black and Hispanic voters, now garnering support from a quarter of Black voters and over a third of Latinos. The issue of abortion has receded from the forefront of public attention for now, though it may return as a significant concern in the future.
Additionally, the lack of substantial opposition to Trump in the Republican primaries has solidified his support within his own party. As the election is approximately a year away, the situation may change, but Trump’s lead has become a consistent pattern on a national scale.
