Morning Consult: Trump Has 43-Point Lead in GOP Race

In the most recent poll by Morning Consult, Donald Trump leads the 2024 Republican presidential primary by a significant 43-point margin.

Securing a dominant 58% of the preference, Trump leads significantly over Florida’s Governor, Ron DeSantis, who stands at 15%. Following them, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has garnered 9%, while former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley stands at 7%, as reported by Morning Consult.

Ex-Vice President Mike Pence’s approval has seen a dip, with only 6% backing him. For the first time, 45% of potential primary voters expressed an unfavorable view of Pence, matching those who see him in a positive light.

In contrast, Trump remains popular among GOP voters, with 76% holding a favorable opinion of him. DeSantis is viewed favorably by 65% of these voters.

The results of this Morning Consult poll come just two days ahead of the second GOP debate. The forthcoming debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California will see seven candidates on stage, as announced by the Republican National Committee.

Trump, having abstained from the inaugural debate, will once again be absent. He has chosen to engage with his base in the crucial state of Michigan instead.

Among those GOP primary voters who favor Trump, DeSantis emerges as the second preference for 33%. Conversely, 34% of those supporting DeSantis consider Trump as their next best option.

For Trump enthusiasts, Ramaswamy is the secondary pick for 25% of them, while he’s the alternate for 19% of DeSantis’ followers.

Significantly, 16% of Trump’s loyalists, which translates to roughly 10% of all potential GOP primary voters, are unsure of their preference if Trump were to drop out.

When questioned about their perception of each candidate based on what they’ve “seen, read, or heard”, 38% reported a positive view of Trump, 34% for Ramaswamy, and 32% for DeSantis. Notably, 73% hadn’t heard much about Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, and 65% said the same about Haley. Currently, Scott holds a modest 2% support in the primary race.

The Morning Consult also highlighted a perceptual shift since 2016, with more voters believing the GOP cares about their interests. On the other hand, since 2020, the Democrats seem to have seen a decline in voters’ trust in aspects from their core ideology to overall competence.

This particular Morning Consult poll took place from Sept. 22-24, surveying 3,552 prospective Republican primary voters.