Trump Leads Biden by 21 Points in Montana

In a recent Emerson College poll, Montana voters have shown a clear preference for former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical match against President Joe Biden. The survey, conducted from October 1st to 4th and encompassing 447 Montana voters, has provided intriguing insights into the political landscape of the state.

According to the poll’s results, 49% of Montana voters express their support for former President Donald Trump, while only 28% favor President Joe Biden in a theoretical matchup. The remaining 16% of respondents indicate a preference for alternative candidates, while 7% remain undecided.

Shifting the focus to Montana’s U.S. Senate race, the poll reveals that 39% of voters are backing Democrat Senator Jon Tester in his bid for reelection, while 35% are inclined towards Republican candidate Tim Sheehy. A small fraction, constituting 6%, is leaning towards other options, and 21% are still undecided.

What makes these findings even more intriguing is the indication that Montana voters are not adhering strictly to party lines. Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted, “Voters split their ticket on the U.S. Senate and presidential elections in 2024.” Surprisingly, 12% of Trump voters are planning to split their ticket by voting for Senator Tester’s reelection bid. This phenomenon can be attributed to Tester’s considerable support among independent and female voters. Among independents, Tester surpasses Biden by 11 points, securing 38% compared to Biden’s 27%. Additionally, among women voters, Tester outperforms Biden by 15 points, with 46% favoring Tester and 31% supporting Biden.

These findings from the Emerson College poll provide a glimpse into the complex political dynamics at play in Montana, as voters weigh their options in both the presidential and Senate races for the upcoming 2024 elections. The margin of error for this survey stands at plus or minus 4.6%, underlining the statistical accuracy of these insights.